As interpreters and students of history, we tend to easily classify and define other historical time periods. As an example, we look to the Renaissance as an era of artistic achievement and innovation, while we view the 1930s as a time of economic failures, physical hardships and governments of totalitarianism. But how do we define what future readers will find in our chapter of the history book? What many of us don’t think about is that we, too, are part of history. Our “Modern Era”, as we call it, won't be so “modern” a century from now. Our descendants will be analyzing us, our society, culture and choices just as we are currently observing the characters who led nations through the devastating world wars of the 20th century. As such, will our descendants, the future historians, politicians and idealists of our world, view our time as a Golden Age of prosperity and peace, or a Dark Age of human backwardness and conflict?
Let’s start by defining the “modern era”. In order to do this, we must identify the events that ushered in the changes that shape our era. The world’s current political, economic, technological and cultural order has been relatively uniform going back to the end of the Cold War; before this, those systems were very different. Using the Cold War era as a point of comparison, and knowing that it was the collapse of the Soviet Union that helped the world transition to current trends, we can presume that the modern era starts with the downfall of Soviet communism and totalitarianism, around 1990. This means that the modern era encompasses the last 25 years or so.
Now that we know what the Modern Era exactly is, we can analyze whether our time has been an era of prosperity or one of failure. In order to do this, we need to ask and then analyze three more questions: First, is prosperity (the common characteristic of all happy historical times) spreading or receding? Second, are we committed to confronting our problems, or do we shy away from them? Third, can we follow up on our past success, or will we repeat past failures? The answers to these three questions will tell us whether or not we have the ability to create and maintain a time of greatness for our current world.
Is prosperity advancing or retreating? Let’s look at a common indicator: economics. In this area, once-developing nations appear to be leading the way, while the West, for the most part, has stalled. Consider China, which was a somewhat impoverished country in the late 1970s. Before that time, the PRC was under the control of Mao Zedong. At that time, China’s economic growth was only 3% per year. However, since then, Chinese economic growth has sped up to be about twice that of America’s. In fact, the Chinese GDP has risen so fast in such a short span of time that it is projected to surpass the GDP of the United States within the next decade. Other developing Asian countries, such as India and Indonesia, are also experiencing high economic growth rates. Meanwhile, the expansion of the “advanced” economies of western nations has slowed way down in the last several years. On average, western economic growth is below the world average, and might amount to as little as 1/3 of Asian growth. On top of this, the national debts of western nations are skyrocketing: Britain, France, Germany and the United States combined have a grand total debt as high as $35 trillion. The United States alone just surpassed the $18 trillion mark. Though we aren’t yet feeling the effects of this unacceptable level of western spending, it is logical that we will be in the next few years. One cannot keep borrowing money without paying it back and expect to avoid the consequences.
None of this is to say that the progress of non-western nations is a problem; on the contrary, their economic growth and development towards capitalist economies and stable nations have been very positive, an example that western countries ought to follow. Rather, I am pointing out these facts to compare how western civilization is beginning to fall behind developing nations in the area of economic growth. As such, it seems that non-western nations are moving closer to prosperity, while in the west, this spread has stagnated, and as seen in the 2007 Global Recession, is often receding.
Are we committed to confronting the challenges that we face? An important factor on the ability to do so is our popular culture; rather than emphasizing what’s right or what’s important, it often encourages us to do “fun” things that make us “happy”. Because this often takes the form of one discarding social norms and values, a significant portion of our population sees this “self-expression” as “liberating”. As the topic of what constitutes a good culture goes beyond the purpose of this essay, it would need to be addressed in a potential future essay. Rather, I want to show how our cultural norms of ignoring reality and responsibility are leading to the failure of many of us to react to the problems that we face, as a nation and a world, today.
For starters, it makes sense to point out that doing “what’s fun” is not as important or significant in the long term as doing what needs to be done. Too many people acknowledge and recognize that something is wrong with our current world, yet do nothing about it. They don’t want to be the ones who stand up and fight back against the forces that threaten our future. Many of us reluctant fighters would rather hide in our comfortable hole, sheltered from the problems around us, and distract ourselves with entertainment or reassuring thoughts. However, the issues that the world faces today won’t disappear by themselves - just as how one's failure to brush their teeth won't make the reality of this choice vanish. In order for us living in affluence to preserve our status and help those who aren’t as fortunate, we need to be willing to confront the world’s problems rather than pretend that they don’t exist. This is something that we can all work on. If we won’t, we will lose everything that our forefathers fought for. If we have a lasting reputation for losing all the progress that our society has made, our time would likely be marked as one of failure, and we would be seen as responsible.
Can we follow up on the triumphs of those who came before us? Today, as throughout human history, the world has no shortage of security threats - terrorism, rogue states, and vicious, cunning dictators all pose a problem for future prosperity and peace. Yet, our leaders react to these problems by downsizing our militaries, cancelling projects that would have increased our level of safety, and decreasing our defensive spending? As mentioned in past essays and as proven throughout history, powerful nations that shy away from their potential and fail to improvise will ultimately stagnate and eventually fall. Consider essentially every great empire that dominated its region in the era in which it existed. There were, to name a few, the Assyrians, Chaldeans, Persians, Romans, Byzantines, Arabs, and Mongols. There was also the British Empire, Napoleonic France and Nazi Germany, and even the Russian Empire and later Soviet Union. What did all of these historical world powers have in common? They rose to power by improvising, or in other words, by exercising a new kind of warfare that enabled them to defeat their neighbors and dominate the land around them. At the same time, they all fell from power because they failed to follow up. None of these civilizations continued to pull more rabbits out of a hat. Instead, these groups of people sank back down and were overtaken by others, who went on to repeat the same mistakes as their predecessors. This is a very common trend for how history has played out. Virtually no world power continued to stay in its position indefinitely.
This is not to suggest that there is no possibility of the west remaining on top - in fact, I’m trying to say the exact opposite. If we work diligently, keep building on what we have, labor to keep that which has served us well in the past (and what can help us succeed in the future), and believe in our own cause, then not only can our civilization continue to exist in peace and prosperity, but also, the rest of the world will be able to do so as well (or, at least, get closer to this objective). Is the world better off under the influence of a civilization that, more than anyone else (and even if not perfect in this pursuit), advocates for freedom, equality, justice and opportunity? Or would we rather find ourselves under the control of a ruthless dictator who stomps liberty and the pursuit of happiness under their feet? No matter what alternative we choose, if we work towards it diligently, it will become our reality.
To conclude, the answer to the question of whether or not we are living in a time of success or stagnation needs to be left to the reader to decide for themselves. The three questions that I have raised regarding our current state, commitment, and ability to follow up on successes rather than failures are meant to guide us in deciding whether we, as a society, are moving forward or falling behind. More importantly, our personal answers to these questions will help us predict whether the future will be marked by success or stagnation. After all, our actions right now are the first steps taken to create or destroy the future. Will our descendants remember us well for giving them a secure and hopeful world, or will they be disappointed in us for allowing them to inherit a world marked by a dark age of failure?
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